Slow but steady dairy commodity price gains will materialize this year. Coupled with lower expected feed costs, an improved margin outlook will eventually drive milk production growth in the Big 7 by 2H 2024. It will likely not be a record price year by any measure, but farmers around the globe will welcome the return to profitability.
There are bright spots on the horizon for improved global dairy prices, but farmers around the world are not awash in profitability as margin challenges persist into the new year. Dairy product price forecasts in most key regions indicate a better year following a challenging 2023, with improved margins sorely needed at the farmgate level.
Milk supply growth continues to struggle, and a return to production expansion will take time. Rabobank forecasts lower year-over-year output for the first two quarters of this year before volume turns positive into the second half of 2024, partially helped by easier-to-overcome comparable data points.
In recent months, lower milk production has been relatively neutralized by sluggish global demand. Looking ahead, however, Rabobank sees increasing evidence that demand is on the upswing. The worst of the recessionary fears has passed in some countries, and while global economic growth will likely be subdued, the overall outlook is modestly improved. The low level of global dairy product stocks, though, means any supply shock or demand event presents an upside price risk for dairy product end users.
Slow but steady dairy commodity price gains will materialize this year. Coupled with lower expected feed costs, an improved margin outlook will eventually drive milk production growth in the Big 7 by 2H 2024. It will likely not be a record price year by any measure, but farmers around the globe will welcome the return to profitability.
Source:- Robobank
